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COVID-19 Fourth Wave India: IIT Kanpur experts predict 4th wave around June, peak in August

covid 19 fourth wave in India prediction

COVID-19 Fourth Wave India: According to experts at IIT Kanpur, the fourth wave of COVID-19 is expected to start in India around June 22 and continue till October 24.

According to the researchers, the fourth wave is predicted to last at least four months. The peak of the fourth wave of COVID-19 in India is expected to last from August 15 to August 31 and decline thereafter.

The statistical prediction was published on 24 February on the preprint server MedRxiv.

Importance

The prediction of experts from IIT Kanpur is significant, as this is the third time that they have predicted a Covid-19 wave in the country. Even his predictions regarding the third wave of Kovid-19 have been almost accurate.

Will the fourth wave of Covid-19 be serious?

According to experts, the severity of the fourth wave will depend on the immunization status of the people, including the emergence of new forms and the administration of booster doses.

Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO epidemiologist and technical lead on COVID-19, has also warned that the next version of COVID-19 will be more contagious, and perhaps, more deadly than its predecessors as it is currently being controlled. Going on, you have to get ahead of it.

Dr. Kerkhov stressed that the pandemic is not over yet and that future versions will be somehow more deadly than Omicron’s.

Fourth wave of COVID in India

  • The fourth wave of COVID-19 is expected to start in India around June 22 and continue till October 24, peaking on August 23.
  • The research was carried out by three researchers – Shubhra Shankar Dhar, Sabra Prasad Rajeshbhai and Shalabh – from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, IIT Kanpur.
  • The team of researchers used a statistical model for their prediction. He used a method called “bootstrap” to calculate the confidence interval of the time point of the peak of the fourth wave.
  • He said that the fourth wave COVID-19 outbreak in India may come after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020 when the first case of COVID-19 was officially reported in India.
  • This method can be used to predict fourth and other waves in other countries as well.

background

Many countries have already seen the third wave and some have even started facing fourth and higher waves of the pandemic. The third wave of COVID-19 in India was predicted using the concept of mixing Gaussian distribution based on data from Zimbabwe. The forecast for the third wave was almost accurate and inspired by the study, the researchers examined the forecast for the fourth wave in India.

 

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