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India’s Economic Outlook FY 2022-23

india economic outlook 2022 2023

Indian economy is expected to Return to growth in FY12 after a decline of 7.3 per cent in FY12, As per the latest CA Annual Equity Assessment 2022 by Client Associates, an independent wealth management firm in India.

The firm’s annual report states that the country’s macro profile is largely conducive to growth. It added that strong government spending coupled with improved exports and effective policy measures by the RBI and the government are likely to support strong economic activity in FY2023.

The assessment highlighted that high frequency indicators like PMI are in constant expansion territory and strong GST collections are positive drivers for the economy.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman during her Budget 2022 speech had also announced that India had recorded a gross GST collection of Rs 1,40,986 crore for January 2022, the highest since the inception of GST.

FY2015-FY2020 . India’s economic growth between

The CA Annual Equity Assessment 2022 states that India’s economic activity between FY2015 and FY2020 witnessed a gradual slowdown from 8.3% in FY2017 to 7.3% in FY21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. There was contraction. India’s growth slowed on average by 3.5% during this period due to weak industrial production and declining demand for private consumption.

India’s economic growth in the first half of FY22

  • The first half of FY 2021-22 saw a strong rebound in economic activity following the disruption caused by the devastating second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic recovery was aided by rapid COVID-19 vaccination, reopening of the domestic economy, liberal monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy.
  • India’s real GDP growth stood at 20.1 per cent during the first quarter of the fiscal and 8.4 per cent in the second quarter.
  • Overall, the domestic production registered in the first quarter was below pre-pandemic levels and also registered a decline of 16.8 per cent over the previous quarter due to the second wave of the pandemic.
  • However, steady growth in the agriculture sector and a broad recovery in industrial output helped the national headline output register a marginal expansion of 0.3% over pre-pandemic levels in Q2 of FY21-22.
  • In addition, increased government expenditure and a strong capital outlay to improve investment activity supported the recovery in economic activity, according to the report. The liquidity position also remained low due to large-scale OMO operations by RBI.

India’s economic outlook for the second half of FY22

  • The CA Annual Equity Assessment 2022 notes that domestic economic activity is set to register an expansion of 9.2 percent, according to the first advanced estimates released by the Office for National Statistics.
  • The agriculture sector is expected to register a growth of 3.9 per cent in production, subject to good monsoon weather and increase in area under cultivation.
  • Other sectors including manufacturing, mining and construction are also expected to register double digit growth.
  • However, the services sector is expected to report a slower rebound, which could negatively impact overall domestic growth.

India’s Economic Outlook for FY 23

The CA Annual Equity Assessment 2022 states that the World Bank upgraded India’s growth prospects in FY23 to 8.7% in its recent update from an earlier estimate of 7.5%.

According to the latest estimates, India’s economic growth is expected to be in the range of 7.5-9% during the next fiscal.

India’s GDP growth in FY23 is expected to be supported by strong government spending and capital expenditure, as there has been no meaningful growth in private consumption demand, the report said.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her Union Budget 2022 speech had announced a 35 per cent increase in outlay for capital expenditure in FY23.

RBI Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Review: February 2022

The Reserve Bank of India, during its bi-monthly monetary policy review on February 10, 2022, decided to continue with its accommodative stance and kept the repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent and the reverse repo rate at 3.35 per cent.

RBI has also projected real GDP growth at 7.8 per cent for the financial year 2022-23. The CPI inflation forecast has also been retained at 5.3% for FY 2021-22 and 4.5% for FY 2022-23.

Read Full RBI Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review Here

background

The CA Annual Equity Assessment 2022 is the 7th edition of the report. The first version of the appraisal was launched by Client Associates in January 2016

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